A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
